One China
- The Dignified Rant (via Instapundit) last week noted China's rapid naval buildup, particularly in amphibious ships and escort submarines, and suggests that they might be preparing for a massive invasion just before the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
- Bill Roggio (via Arthur Chrenkoff) responds at length, citing a two-year-old article in the Naval War College Review.
- Both sides seem at least interested in being ready for the possibility -- Bill Roggio reports on U.S. naval operations last summer practicing to oppose a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and now the Dignified Rant has reports of a joint exercise between China and Russia in which China will be basically doing a dry run for the invasion.
Even so, it's not hard to imagine China's leaders talking themselves into the belief, however ill-founded, that they could swamp Taiwan quickly and present the U.S. with a fait accompli.
UPDATE: From a brief reading of the NWCR paper, one of the factors the authors argue from is China's old and declining ambibious assault navy, predicted to fall by half by 2010. China's actual buildup of these forces since that article was written could cast matters in a different light.
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